Clouds with silver linings: how mobilization shapes the impact of coups on democratization

There is a long-standing debate over the impact of coups on democratization. Some argue that can help promote transitions to democratic rule. Yet, others contend often spur increased repression and autocratization, undermining hopes reform. We both autocratic changes are more likely after coup popular mobilization plays crucial role in shaping post-coup trajectory. Democratization when occur presence significant mobilization. A reveals cracks within regime, combination pressure from threat below during mobilizations fosters greater incentives promise In absence mobilization, rule likely, especially successful. test our argument combined effect democracy global dataset, considering specific dates events institutional changes, outcomes coups, using decay functions capture persistent effects. The analysis provides strong support for argument, with key findings robust across number alternative tests. Our underscores value examining variation context understand their political consequences.